Edited by Sergio Silvestri

In the third quarter of the year, GDP increased by 0,5 percent compared to the previous quarter, bringing its growth to 3,9 percent. Wholesale natural gas prices fell on the European and Italian markets. On the other hand, consumer price inflation rose, and the major central banks' interest rate hikes weighed heavily on household and business balance sheets. These are some of the data included in the Update to the Economic and Financial Document (Nadef), which revises the one approved by the previous government on September 28. La The new version of the Nadef – explained the Minister of Economy and Finance, Giancarlo Giorgetti – allows Parliament to analyze an integrated economic and public finance framework that includes a new policy scenario.

The GDP growth forecast under the current-legislation scenario, explains Giorgetti, has been revised upward for 2022 from 3,3% to 3,7%, while that for 2023 has been reduced from 0,6% to 0,3%. The forecasts for the following two years have remained unchanged at 1,8% and 1,5%, respectively. The nominal GDP levels forecast for 2022 and the coming years are higher than the September forecast, with positive impacts on public finance projections. The deficit forecasts for 2024 have been revised upward from 3,5% to 3,6% of GDP, and for 2025 from 3,2% to 3,3%, primarily due to higher interest costs on public debt caused by the recent rise in market yields. Regarding gas supplies, Italy relies primarily on import flows, which are subject to various risks in the current geopolitical context. The government's primary objective, as specified in the text, is to minimize the impact of energy prices on household budgets and to ensure the survival and competitiveness of businesses. For this reason, "the government has decided to confirm the 2022 deficit target set by the Economic and Financial Document (DEF) of 5,6 percent of GDP and to use a majority of the resulting budgetary space, estimated at just over €9 billion, to cover new energy cost mitigation measures, such as the reintroduction of tax credits for businesses and the reduction of fuel excise duties until December 31."

The document highlights that energy price trends and their impact on businesses and households will be monitored continuously in the early months of 2023. A strong commitment will also be dedicated to implementing the Recovery and Resilience Plan, "on which significant investments depend to relaunch the sustainable growth of the Italian economy."