Money laundering numbers in Italy: inside the 2024 UIF Report.

Second part – Commented analysis of the data

After reading Director Enzo Serata's words last week, the time has come to open the 76-page 2024 Annual Report of the Financial Intelligence Unit for Italy and see what the numbers say. Because it is through data that we measure the effectiveness of anti-money laundering policies, we understand the tensions affecting the legal and illegal economy, and we understand where the system is holding up—and where it struggles to respond.

2024 was a year in which, despite critical issues, signs of systemic maturation emerged. The following analysis delves into those numbers, aiming to restore meaning, context, and critical issues.

SOS: a system that withstands the shock, but transforms itself

In 2024, the UIF received 145.664 suspicious transaction reports (SOS). This number is slightly lower than in 2023 (-3,1%), but remains the second-highest figure ever. The decrease, while modest, is primarily attributable to the decline in volumes from banking intermediaries and Poste Italiane.

But reducing the data to a simple decline would be misleading. The truth is that the system is changing: reporting is more selective, more targeted. In a word, better. This is one of the report's central messages.

Who reports? The composition of the obligated parties

The banking world continues to be the backbone of the system, but the real news is the emergence of new players.

· Reports from professionals (notaries, accountants, lawyers) are growing steadily, although still far from their potential. In 2024, they increased by 8,6%, with a significant peak for notaries.

Even more marked is the growth in reports from non-financial entities: +9,7% compared to 2023. These include real estate operators, gold buyers, consulting firms, and especially cryptocurrency operators, a rapidly developing segment. It's noteworthy that virtual currency operators have doubled their reporting rate.

· The Public Administration remains marginal in terms of numbers, but has shown initial signs of recovery. Reports still come from a small number of entities (concentrated in Central and Northern Italy), but they stand out for their accuracy and timeliness. Some municipalities, tax agencies, and local supervisory bodies have implemented good operating practices.

In short: the reporting population is expanding and diversifying. This isn't a sudden change, but a structural one. The anti-money laundering culture is beginning to move beyond the banking niche and into broader sectors, and this is one of the UIF's stated objectives.

Quality of reporting: less quantity, more substance

One of the aspects the UIF has emphasized most in 2024 is the quality of the reporting flow. And the data confirms tangible progress: the percentage of STRs assessed as low or zero risk has dropped from 25% in 2023 to 20% in 2024. This means that operators are learning to filter better and not "shoot into the crowd."

Contributing to this qualitative leap was the QUASAR tool, a proprietary platform that assigns a synthetic risk index to each report. The result is twofold: on the one hand, it improves the UIF's internal work; on the other, it allows for targeted feedback to be provided to whistleblowers, activating a virtuous learning cycle.

It's an advanced form of supervision that goes beyond the "command-control" approach and aims to empower those responsible. QUASAR not only analyzes, but educates.

RADAR and financial intelligence: the heart of analysis

The UIF does more than just receive and classify SOSs: it processes their contents, builds relational networks, and analyzes suspicious activity. In 2024, it handled 150.785 information flows, including ordinary reports, cross-border transactions, anomalies in cash movements, and objective communications.

This amount of work is made possible by the RADAR system, enriched in 2024 with new features:

· Financial ranking: classifies entities by economic relevance.

· Link rating: evaluates the strength of connections between subjects.

· Neutral Subject Filters: Exclude irrelevant operators to make the network clearer.

RADAR It is not a cataloging tool, but a cognitive accelerator. It transforms raw data into operational intelligence. And it is precisely thanks to this type of analysis that the UIF is able to detect sophisticated patterns that would otherwise escape a linear interpretation. RADAR's developments in 2024 have allowed, for example, the identification of fictitious corporate structures, cross-border financial triangulations, and alternative movement channels to the banking system.

Processing times: efficiency improves

In terms of timeframes, 2024 also saw progress. 92% of ordinary SOSs were processed within 60 days, compared to 84% the previous year. This is a significant leap, the result of an internal reorganization but also the adoption of new digital tools, semi-automated workflows, and intelligent case assignment systems.

The UIF demonstrates its ability to use technology not only to "do more," but also to do it better and faster. In some cases, it has been able to intercept anomalous flows and transmit the information to the investigative authorities in less than 24 hours.

Suspension measures: when the UIF freezes funds

In 2024, the UIF adopted 188 suspension orders, for a total amount of over €63 million. More than 40% were initiated directly by the Unit. These were not simply responses "at the request" of the police forces, but rather autonomous actions, often the result of internal analysis.

The suspended operations mainly concern:

· computer fraud and banking phishing,

· suspicious transfers between companies linked by opaque relationships,

· extremely rapid movements on accounts attributable to intermediaries or "filter" companies.

Stopping it in time is possible, but only if you know where to look. And that's precisely the point: the FIU is learning to look in the right place, before the damage is done.

The investigative findings: the UIF as the first filter of illegality

The value of reports is also measured by investigative feedback. And here the data is clear:

· the Guardia di Finanza has positively validated approximately 48.000 reports;

· the National Anti-Mafia and Counter-Terrorism Directorate it has confirmed over 9.600, with a high risk rate (87% high or medium-high);

· the DAY used UIF data to propose capital measures relating to assets worth over 190 million euros.

The UIF is, in effect, an economic intelligence agency, capable of decisively directing investigative activities. A gray area that becomes a gateway to more serious crimes. SOS reports aren't just information: they are the system's antibodies.

An interim report: data that speaks of challenges, not just successes

Looking at the Report as a whole, an unavoidable truth emerges: the Italian anti-money laundering system is improving, but it operates in an ever-changing environment. Tax evasion, fraud involving public funds, mafia infiltration, and the misuse of financial technologies remain complex challenges.

The introduction of new tools (such as QUASAR and RADAR) and the commitment to digitalization are a step forward, but the system must continue to expand, integrate, and evolve. Much remains to be done in terms of interinstitutional collaboration, expanding the reporting base, and reducing the remaining pockets of inefficiency. Banks alone are not enough: a shared culture is needed, particularly a more engaged public administration and oversight that focuses not only on control but also on prevention.

The entry of new players like AMLA, the new European authority, promises a step change, but a coordinated effort will be needed to ensure that technological innovation doesn't remain just on paper. The European financial intelligence game will also hinge on the ability of national authorities to build agile, interconnected, and interoperable infrastructures.

Coming soon: threats of the future (and present)

In this second part, we explored the numerical anatomy of the Italian anti-money laundering system in 2024. In the third and final part, we will focus on emerging threats: Cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, PNRR fraud, fake guarantees, and the new face of organized economic crimeA closer look at the strategies of the most insidious actors and the system's ability to react in real time.

See you next week, Wednesday, June 25th, for the third and final part.